"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong." Richard P. Feynman

Monday, April 5, 2010

Huffington Post Goes Rogue!

THe Huffington Post , that bastion of left-wing ideology has published a good well thought -out article by a climate skeptic , Charles Warner, titled "The Media Curmudgeon is Taken to Task ".

Now, you can write me off as some denier but I do think I have some creds in this debate. I went to MIT to be an astrophysicist and the only way to do that was to get two Bachelor's degrees. So, I got one in Physics (Course 8 in MIT lingo) and got another one in Earth & Planetary Sciences (Course 12). The latter degree required interesting classes like "Earth and Planetary Chemistry" where we actually built models of the chemistry and climate of various planets (including earth). They were simple models but, at their core, they were meant to understand things like what gases exist in an atmosphere, what pressures/temperatures would exist given a certain input of energy, what did that look like at different altitudes.

While I went into business, I am very familiar with a lot of the concepts and approaches that go into climate modeling. Moreover, in my professional (business) career, I have been intimately involved in modeling lots of complex problems and used many statistical methods to do so. In fact, I am considered by many to be talented in understanding how to build good quantitative models. I've built investment models, marketing models, and supply chain models that have been very successful. Moreover, many of the problems I have worked on were in noisy systems (those with high variability to signal - not unlike climate).

With that preamble, I can tell you the following:
1) The world has had significantly larger climate swings in the last 5,000, 10,000, and 100,000 years that we have seen recently.
2) The data used for climate modeling is an amalgam of different proxies that have had significant adjustments made by those analyzing them.
3) Those adjustments are as least as big as the effects the models say are occurring.
4) There are significant changes in the sample data points over time and, from what I can tell, the samples have significant bias over time (read Briffa tree ring data).
5) Very few, if any, of the papers that support AGW share authorship with pure math statisticians.
The above (save #5 maybe) are science based issues. I could list a whole bunch of issues that are more political in nature - conflicts of interest, funding, etc.
So, from my perspective, I do not see any definitive proof that AGW exists. I will also submit that making fun of stupid people who don't believe in it is no form of proof as well.
I must give credit where due and if the Huff is going to be even-handed then good for them.
Time will tell

1 comment:

  1. As a physicist I expect that Charles Warner will has some appreciation of the following. The greenhouse gas effect was disproved in 1909 by R.W.Wood a professor of physics at John Hopkins University from 1901 to 1955. His subject was Optics and he was an expert in UV and IR radiation. In addition the work of Gerlich and Tscheuschner published in International Journal of Modern Physics will have some influence. below are some references. List of references:
    The paper "Falsification of the Atmospheric CO2 greenhouse effect within the frame of physics" by Gerhard Gerlich and Ralf D. Tscheuschner is an in-depth examination of the subject. Version 4 2009
    Electronic version of an article published as International Journal of Modern Physics
    B, Vol. 23, No. 3 (2009) 275{364 , DOI No: 10.1142/S021797920904984X, c World
    Scientific Publishing Company, http://www.worldscinet.com/ijmpb.
    Report of Alan Carlin of US-EPA March, 2009 that shows that CO2 does not cause global warming.

    Greenhouse Gas Hypothesis Violates Fundamentals of Physics” by Dipl-Ing Heinz Thieme This work has about 10 or 12 link
    that support the truth that the greenhouse gas effect is a hoax.
    The following text is from the Philosophical magazine (more properly the London, Edinborough and Dublin Philosophical Magazine ???check this more exactly???), 1909, vol 17, p319-320. Cambridge UL shelf mark p340.1.c.95, if you're interested.
    The Hidden Flaw in Greenhouse Theory
    By Alan Siddons
    from: http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/02/the_hidden_flaw_in_greenhouse.html at March 01, 2010 - 09:10:34 AM CST

    The bottom line is that the facts show that the greenhouse gas effect is a fairy-tale and that Man-made global warming is the World larges Scam!!!The IPCC and Al Gore should be charged under the US Anti-racketeering act and when convicted - they should spend the rest of their lives in jail for the Crimes they have committed against Humanity.

    Web- site references:
    many others are available.