"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong." Richard P. Feynman

Friday, June 5, 2015

Global Warming Pause conveniently erased - ready for Paris


NOAA has published a paper by climate "scientists" purporting in one fell swoop to erase the 20 year global warming "pause" shown by all four major global temperature datasets. Professor Judith Curry is underwhelmed by the publication as are many other reputable scientists in the field. It does not matter whether this paper is BS as it will be splashed across the media and used extensively by Obanana in the run-up to the Paris gab-fest. After December - who cares?
From the  paper:
Abstract: Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming “hiatus.” Here we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than reported by the IPCC, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a “slowdown” in the increase of global surface temperature.
Judith comments:
The greatest changes in the new NOAA surface temperature analysis is to the ocean temperatures since 1998.  This seems rather ironic, since this is the period where there is the greatest coverage of data with the highest quality of measurements – satellites don’t show a warming trend.  Nevertheless, the NOAA team finds a substantial increase in the ocean surface temperature anomaly trend since 1998.

I am also unconvinced by NOAA’s gap filling in the Arctic, and in my opinion this introduces substantial error into their analysis.  I addressed the issue of gap filling in the Arctic in this recent publication:  Curry JA, 2014:  Climate science:  Uncertain temperature trends. Nature Geoscience, 7, 83-84.

Like blowflies around bad meat the warmist media is already swarming.
 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/04/global-warming-hasnt-paused-study-finds
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/06/04/global-warming-climate-change-hiatus/28479937/
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/there-no-global-warming-hiatus-after-all-180955501/?no-ist
The headline for the Smithsonian says it all stating as fact :
There Is No Global Warming Hiatus After All

 

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