"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong." Richard P. Feynman

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Another Little Ice Age coming - Global warming continues say climate "scientists"

If the return of a little ice age cannot convince climate "scientists" of their error then they are morons.

Last time Britain faced these temperatures elephants walked on the Thames.




Chris Laker of BT has the story:

Britain braced for mini-ice age as temperatures are set to drop to a 300-year low
Low temperatures not seen for 300 years could be on the way to Britain thanks to a drop in solar activity, experts have warned.





If you were enjoying the current warm spell, enjoy it while it lasts as forecasters have warned that the UK could enter a mini-ice age.

A Met Office-led study in conjunction with scientists at the Universities of Oxford, Cambridge and Reading, found that a return to low solar activity not seen for centuries could increase the chances of cold winters in Europe and eastern parts of the United States.
But the study, which was published in the Nature Communications journal, added that the freeze will not be enough to halt global warming.

Sarah Ineson, a Met Office scientist and lead author of the study said: "This research shows that the regional impacts of a grand solar minimum are likely to be larger than the global effect, but it's still nowhere near big enough to override the expected global warming trend due to man-made change.

"This means that even if we were to see a return to levels of solar activity not seen since the Maunder Minimum, our winters would likely still be getting milder overall."

It is understood that the sun's output increases and decreases, measured by the number of sunspots on the star's surface, over a timescale of 100 to 200 years.

Some solar physicists believe there's an increased risk that we're heading towards the lower end of this cycle - last seen during the so-called Maunder Minimum which ended 300 years ago.

This coincided with colder winters in the UK and Europe, with 'frost fairs' taking place on a frozen River Thames in London.

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Dark days of Catholicism return

Countless millions died in the Spanish Inquisition and other historical religious persecutions in the name of the Holy Roman Church. The current Pope is following in the footsteps of his predecessors in supporting failed ideological policies that will kill many of the most vulnerable in our society. Cheap energy is vital for the elderly and poor and ridiculous climate policies are causing prices to skyrocket without any discernible effect on temperatures. The Energy & Environment Legal Institute has released a video in a plea to the Pope to reconsider.

Saturday, June 6, 2015

Double back flip with pike

Climate "scientists" are able to perform mental and logical gymnastics to keep their scam alive and some gold medal performances are being seen following the release of the shonky hiatus-killing paper by NASA/NOAA.
A medal should definitely go to  Mark Maslin, a climatology professor at University College London, who said “a whole cottage industry has been built by climate sceptics on the false premise that there is currently a hiatus in global warming”. “This is despite climate data showing continued warming of the Earth surface,” he said.
Mark omits to tell us that the hiatus in global warming is observed by that well-known subversive sceptical body called the IPCC  in the AR5 reports which says:
"In summary, the observed recent warming hiatus, defined as the reduction in GMST trend during 1998–2012 as compared to the trend during 1951–2012, is attributable in roughly equal measure to a cooling contribution from internal variability and a reduced trend in external forcing (expert judgment, medium confidence). The forcing trend reduction is primarily due to a negative forcing trend from both volcanic eruptions and the downward phase of the solar cycle. However, there is low confidence in quantifying the role of forcing trend in causing the hiatus, because of uncertainty in the magnitude of the volcanic forcing trend and low confidence in the aerosol forcing trend."

No mention of a false premise there , just good old "Settled Science".

Friday, June 5, 2015

One of the World's Greatest Physicists on CO2



Freeman Dyson ,one of the giants of 20th century science is interviewed - a great contrast to the mental pygmies calling themselves "climate scientists" who infest the airwaves today. This rare interview is worth watching.
Freeman John Dyson FRS (born 15 December 1923) is an English-born American [5][6] theoretical physicist and mathematician, known for his work in quantum electrodynamicssolid-state physicsastronomy and nuclear engineering. Dyson is a member of the Board of Sponsors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.[7]

Global Warming Pause conveniently erased - ready for Paris


NOAA has published a paper by climate "scientists" purporting in one fell swoop to erase the 20 year global warming "pause" shown by all four major global temperature datasets. Professor Judith Curry is underwhelmed by the publication as are many other reputable scientists in the field. It does not matter whether this paper is BS as it will be splashed across the media and used extensively by Obanana in the run-up to the Paris gab-fest. After December - who cares?
From the  paper:
Abstract: Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming “hiatus.” Here we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than reported by the IPCC, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a “slowdown” in the increase of global surface temperature.
Judith comments:
The greatest changes in the new NOAA surface temperature analysis is to the ocean temperatures since 1998.  This seems rather ironic, since this is the period where there is the greatest coverage of data with the highest quality of measurements – satellites don’t show a warming trend.  Nevertheless, the NOAA team finds a substantial increase in the ocean surface temperature anomaly trend since 1998.

I am also unconvinced by NOAA’s gap filling in the Arctic, and in my opinion this introduces substantial error into their analysis.  I addressed the issue of gap filling in the Arctic in this recent publication:  Curry JA, 2014:  Climate science:  Uncertain temperature trends. Nature Geoscience, 7, 83-84.

Like blowflies around bad meat the warmist media is already swarming.
 http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/04/global-warming-hasnt-paused-study-finds
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/06/04/global-warming-climate-change-hiatus/28479937/
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/there-no-global-warming-hiatus-after-all-180955501/?no-ist
The headline for the Smithsonian says it all stating as fact :
There Is No Global Warming Hiatus After All

 

Thursday, June 4, 2015

Economic Disaster for Inuits

Overpopulation of seals seriously depleting fish stocks

Inuit communities which relied on seal exports for survival are being hard-hit by a ban on seal imports to Europe. So while indigenous Inuits can still hunt seals their market has been destroyed by Greenpeace advocacy from their comfortable city-based lifestyle. Inuits are seeking an overturning of the 2009 ban on European sales.
The week of May 20, a delegation of native Greenlanders descended on the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, advocating for the repeal of a 2009 ban on the import of commercially harvested seal products to Europe.
Since the ban—inspired by the efforts of animal-rights advocacy organizations like Greenpeace—seal pelt exports have dropped 90%. And despite a written exemption for indigenous Inuit hunters, markets across the Arctic, both large-scale commercial and sustainable-use, have crashed, with disastrous effect for Greenland and northern Canada’s coastal Inuit communities.
“You get European tourists up in the Arctic who don’t understand the legislation,” Aaju Peter tells Quartz. Peter is a Greenland-born Inuk (Inuk is the singular form of Inuit) and lawyer who runs a home-based, sealskin garment business out of Toronto. She also advocates for Inuit rights to seal-product commerce and issues related to Arctic waters. “What people don’t understand is that Europeans can buy for their own use,” she explains. “But that doesn’t really matter, because European fashion designers and the rest of the world have stopped using sealskins. The ban crashed the market.The remoteness of Inuit lands only exacerbates misunderstanding. “The world doesn’t understand our geography,” she says. “Ten months of the year, it’s all snow and ice. We can’t grow or raise anything.”
Peter recalls the days before the ban fondly: “When the sealskin was legal and the price was high, the hunters could afford to buy gas and ammunition,” she tells Quartz. Hunters had a product to sell (pelts) that doubled as a means of feeding the family—there is as much iron in a palm-sized portion of seal meat as there is in 56 sausages, Peter told Rabble.”
Aside from decimating the traditional Inuit economy, Europe’s ban has had a terrible effect on regional marine ecology. “The seal population has grown astronomical,” Peter says. “The numbers, conservatively, are between seven and ten million for harp seals.” As evidence, she notes she was recently invited to a meeting with Danish fishermen currently locked in a fierce competition with the bloated seal population. “The seals are consuming 10 million tons of fish a year,” she says.
Europe has attempted to address seal overpopulation, but their methods have only incensed Peter and her fellow advocates further. “In European states, at the same time as they banned the import of commercially hunted seal products, the member states themselves applied for licenses to cull the number of seals!” she says. “The Europeans can understand [seal hunting] when it starts affecting their own needs of livelihood, for instance their fish stock. They totally ignore it when it is far away in Canada.”



A Real Worry

In an effort to understand climate "scientist" logic I decided to apply it to a real life situation - namely my height.
Assuming for the sake of argument that growth was linear to 18 years and stopped thereafter the brown graph approximates what really happened.
A climate "scientist" would say that I have reached the height of 72 inches over 72 years and the alarming trend is that I am growing at 1 inch per year and if I live to be 100 I will be 8 ft 4 inches tall.
Drastic measures will obviously have to be taken to stop the increase in my height! As I do not believe my height is increasing I will obviously be labelled a "denier" from here on.


Note. Interestingly I discovered while writing this that height generally decreases by about .4 inches per decade after 40 and can decrease faster after 70!

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Wind Power Carnage


A paper from the World Council for Nature on bird mortality caused by wind towers has been presented to the Australian Senate.The paper claims that bird mortality figures are being underquoted by orders of magnitude to hide the real damage caused by the machines. Read on.
“It is my duty, as President of the World Council for Nature, to bring to your attention the true extent of the carnage which is taking place at wind farms around the world, including in Australia. The deception being staged by consultants in order to fool people and their governments will have unfathomed consequences for wildlife, biodiversity, natural habitats, and the health of forests and agriculture. We are facing widespread corrupt behavior, which is putting private interests ahead of the common good.”
Australian members of our organisation have complained to us that mortality predictions being used in Australia to assess the impacts of wind turbines on birds and bats are minimised to a level that thoroughly misleads decision makers. To wit, in a widely used report prepared for the Australian Government by consultant Biosis Research Pty Ltd, we read (p. 32):
[T]he additional mortality predicted for the cumulative effects of turbine collisions for wind farms within the range of the Tasmanian Wedge-tailed Eagle (TWTE) is likely to result in the additional death of approximately one bird per annum.
Yet, actual eagle mortality at just one of the 7 wind farms considered by the study turned out to be 3.2 eagles per year, according to the operator of the Woolnorth wind farm. Dr. Stephen Debus puts the number at 5 TWTE per year. As the 6 other wind farms have not been monitored, “there might be tens of eagle deaths per year in Tasmania” (from blade strikes), adds Dr. Debus. Of these, the vast majority concerns the TWTE: at the Woolnorth wind farm, from 20 eagles killed in 4 years, 17 were TWTEs and 3 were white-bellied sea eagles.
The Tasmanian Wedge-tailed Eagle, a (bigger) sub-species of the Wedge-tailed Eagle, numbered only 130 successful breeding pairs in 2010 according to the state’s National Parks and Wildlife Service – and obviously less now, as the killings are allowed to continue. It is classified as “endangered”. The result of the misleading assessment of Biosis will be to condemn to extinction the largest of Australia’s eagles.
I analysed the Biosis TWTE study in 2010, and found disturbing “errors” in it, huge ones at that, totaling two orders of magnitude. So Iwrote an open letter to the authors. They failed to reply. Australian ornithologists, which had been copied on it, also kept silent. The letter generated record levels of traffic on the Iberica 2000 website that had published it, but nobody responded, no one. Apparently, nobody wanted to hear the bad news, let alone acknowledge them, especially ornithologists, bird societies, and even the media, enthralled as they all are by the “goodness” of wind turbines.
In fact, I realized that everyone had an interest in continuing business as usual. And business as usual it has been, in the five years that followed to this date. As we speak, mendacious mortality predictions from eager-to-please consultants continue to be used to promote wind farms across your great country. The Tasmanian situation was resolved by making sure that no more news of eagles killed by wind farms on the island would be published by the media. This cover-up is now five years old, and has been quite effective: no news of eagle mortality has transpired from Woolnorth or any other Tasmanian wind farm.
I shall come back to the matter of unethical consultants and bird societies later, but I would like to cite another example briefly, to make my point. It’s about the Macarthur wind farm, in Victoria. Before the project was built, consultants had estimated that the level of bird activity was low in the area, and that the impact on birds would be insignificant. But after construction, a monitoring survey counted the carcasses and estimated the death toll at about 1500 birds in one year, including nearly 500 raptors – among which 6 wedge-tailed eagles). So much for the negligible bird mortality….!
This scenario is repeating itself at wind farms all over the world, wherever post-construction monitoring surveys are performed. My experience has been that predicted rates of mortality are often two orders of magnitude (100 times) lower than reality. The monitoring surveys themselves play their part, by never reflecting the full extent of the death toll (for technical reasons – e.g. the insufficient size of the area searched under each turbine – as well as conflicts of interest). * search area: a 50-meter-radius circle around each mast, whereas a 150-meter-tall wind turbine can project the body of a small bird 200 meters away and beyond).
Manipulated Mortality Statistics
It is my duty, as President of the World Council for Nature, to bring to your attention the true extent of the carnage which is taking place at wind farms around the world, including Australia. The deception being staged by consultants in order to fool people and their governments will have unfathomed consequences for wildlife, biodiversity, natural habitats, and the health of forests and agriculture. We are facing widespread corrupt behavior, which is putting private interests ahead of the common good.
In Australia, but also elsewhere, consultants mislead decision-makers by predicting insignificant mortality. We have seen the case of the Macarthur wind farm. In Europe it is much the same, e.g. in France the official mortality estimate is about one bird/turbine/year. Here again, consultants willing to please the wind industry, their main employer, are the source of the deception.
In the U.S., the latest nationwide windfarm mortality estimates are Dr. Smallwood’s 573,000 birds and 888,000 bats per year, i.e. almost 15 birds and 23 bats per turbine. But there are also European estimates of interest: for instance, extrapolating to Germany the findings of reknowned Dutch biologist J.E. Winkelman, ornithologist Bernd Koop had calculated that annual mortality would be 60,000 – 100,000 birds per Gigawatt of installed wind capacity. [1]
For today’s Germany, which has 39 Gigawatts, this would add up to 2,340,000 – 3,900,000 dead birds a year. The Koop estimate is much closer to reality, which was revealed in 2012 by a comprehensive evaluation of wind farm mortality by the Spanish ornithological society SEO-BirdLife (Sociedad Española de Ornitología). In response to a request based on the right to information in environmental matters (Aarhus Convention), SEO has obtained copies of 136 monitoring studies of wind farms, studies that the Spanish government had filed without publishing. Having analyzed them, SEO researchers estimated the mortality as follows: Spain’s 18,000 wind turbines kill on average 6 – 18 million birds and bats a year.
Considering that wind turbines kill roughly twice as many bats as birds, this comes to a death toll of 100–300 birds and 200–600 bats per turbine per year. Averaging these numbers, we can say that, on average, each wind turbine kills 200 birds and 400 bats a year. For the Macarthur wind farm: 200 birds x 140 turbines = 28,000 birds a year, as opposed to 1,500 estimated by monitoring consultants.
These figures are actually shy of the first estimates of two decades ago. In a study published by an agency of the California government, the California Energy Commission, we can read as follows (p. 12, 1st paragraph): “In a summary of avian impacts at wind turbines by Benner et al. (1993) bird deaths per turbine per year were as high as 309 in Germany and 895 in Sweden.

No cause for alarm

Untampered satellite temperature measurements show that Global warming has been only .2 degree over 35 years and the trend is now down. With alarmists trying to whip up a frenzy prior to December's global conference in Paris I suspect some sort of effort will be made to discredit the satellite data in favor of the highly modified terrestial datasets.

Climategate blew Copenhagen out of the water and without a similar scandal a huge effort from sceptics will be needed stop the alarmist momentum in Paris.

Monday, June 1, 2015

The Ugly Face of Green

wv-randolph-barbour
West Virginian Mountains defaced by bird shredding monsters
A whirling forest of blades now confronts birds in this previously pristine mountain wilderness - birds which are being sacrificed for a twisted green ideology.


One that did not make it.
 


Ivanpah concentrated solar thermal power tower and mirrors, seen from above
California bird incinerator
The concentrated heat at the centre of this Californian solar array is like a death ray to unwary birds.
. Workers at the Ivanpah solar power plant call these birds “streamers,” as they ignite in midair and plummet to the ground trailing smoke. Federal wildlife investigators said there was, on average, one streamer every two minutes — or hundreds of thousands of incinerated birds per year. Another expert estimated that the number is nearer 28,000 per year. 

Birds are having feathers burnt off in flight.